This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
NATIONAL property prices will grow by 4% in 2024, with the rebound from this year’s short-lived downturn set to continue into the new year.
According to PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook Report December 2023, the ongoing rebound will see property prices increase by an anticipated 1% to 4%.
“Australia’s property market proved resilient in 2023. Home prices have increased 5.5% so far this year to a record high, despite deteriorating housing affordability and interest rate rises significantly reducing borrowing capacities,” said Cameron Kusher, report author and director of economic research at PropTrack.
“Nationally, we expect prices to grow between 1% and 4% in 2024. We expect that a combination of continued strong demand and limited new housing construction will contribute to price gains, albeit at a slower pace than what we experienced this year.”
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to grow at a more moderate pace than in 2023, in the range of 2% to 5% and 1% and 4% respectively.
While Perth prices expected to grow between 5% and 8%, Adelaide between 4% and 7% and Brisbane between 3% and 6%, with the three cities set to lead the nation in growth after a strong 2023.
The smaller capital cities are forecast to see small declines to moderate gains over 2024, with Canberra estimated to see changes between a fall of 1% and a gain on 2%, Hobart between a fall of 2% and gain of 1%.
While Darwin is forecast to fall by 3% or remain steady.
Australia’s capital cities have driven home price growth over the year so far, up 6.6% compared to a 2.8% increase in regional areas.
“Stage three tax cuts will commence in July, which will benefit higher income earners, and in- turn, could lead to increased demand for higher priced housing,” added Kusher.
“Interest rates are now at a 12-year high, and while they remained steady in December, there is a possibility of future increases, which could have an impact on buyer and seller sentiment.”
Total stock of properties for sale is now sitting at a historically low level nationally at 23.9% below decade average for November.
With the number of enquiries per listing on realestate.com.au increased 20.5% year-on-year, as buyers fight it out for a relatively low volume of stock.
“Reflecting on 2023, a number of factors drove the home price rebound. The volume of stock available for sale remained at persistently low levels while buyer demand also increased significantly, fuelled by a housing shortage and strong population growth. It’s likely these trends will continue into 2024,” concluded Kusher.
