This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
OXFORD Economics is predicting a bumpy ride for residential property across Australia in coming years.
In its flagship Residential Property Prospects report, Oxford predicts property prices and the rental market – both nationally and by capital city and region – to 2026.
According to the report, the housing sector looks to be at an inflection point moving into 2024.
Oxford says the positive factors supporting price growth in 2023 have started to fade.
“Auction clearance rates have softened from 70 per cent to near 60 per cent, while monthly price growth has moderated, with some capital cities recording negative quarterly results,” the report says.
Oxford adds that the issue plaguing property will once again be affordability.
“Affordability has deteriorated significantly over the past two years. This will play a key role in containing the pace of growth, especially for houses. However, a significant dwelling stock deficiency is geared to persist across all of Australia’s major population centres, placing a floor under prices.”
“As such, after a year in which Australia’s median home price hit an estimated new record of $939,000 in December 2023.”
Oxford Economics forecasts muted home price growth of 2.7 per cent nationally in 2024, with the median all-dwelling price forecast to grow an average of 6.3 per cent p.a. over the two years to FY26.
“Units will outpace houses, lifting 7.6 per cent versus six per cent p.a., respectively,” Oxford concludes.
