This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
MELBOURNE could overtake Sydney as Australia's largest city in just under two decades.
Victorian planning minister Matthew Guy said the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirm that Melbourne and Victoria will continue to accommodate strong population growth over the coming 50 years.
The ABS forecast, projection series B (medium growth) Melbourne’s population is expected to surpass Sydney’s by 2053.
However the projections under Series A (high growth) Melbourne could be Australia’s most populated city by as early as 2030.
The projections indicate that Melbourne’s population is expected to reach 8.6 million by 2061, surpassing Sydney in 2053. Victoria’s population is also expected to continue to grow strongly from 5.6 million in 2012 to 10.3 million in 2061 an increase of 83%.
“These latest projections confirmed that the Victorian coalition government was taking the right approach in opening up a range of housing opportunities in urban renewal precincts, growth areas and in rural and regional Victoria.
“Plan Melbourne provides a clear course of action to protect our suburbs, as well as provide a clear pipeline of development in defined locations and a direction to once and for all create a State of Cities, not just a city-state.
“These policies position Melbourne and Victoria to allow for population growth and demographic change while at the same time protecting the liveability of Melbourne and Victoria’s key regional centres,” he added.
Guy said that it was important to note that these projections contain a number of scenarios that could in fact lead to alternative population growth outcomes.
“The ABS has included a number of alternative assumptions around fertility rates, net overseas migration and life expectancy. However, even if more conservative assumptions are used, Melbourne will still face significant population growth. If applied to Melbourne, the Series C projection (low growth) is still expected to realise a city of 7.6 million people by 2061,” Guy said.
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