This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
MORTGAGE delinquencies are forecast for moderate rises into 2025, with Melbourne emerging as the centre for home arrears.
According to the latest data from Moody’s Ratings, mortgage delinquency rates have grown across most areas in the country and aren’t set to slow as we move into the new year, with households still grappling with high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis.
In the year to the end of May, each state and territory recorded an increase in mortgage delinquency rates, led by growth in Tasmania, Victoria and the Northern Territory to 2.43%, 2.47% and 3.70% respectively.
While New South Wales, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory, Western Australia and South Australia saw more moderate increases to 1.81%, 1.62%, 1.18%, 2.32% and 1.86% respectively.
With average delinquency rates increasing in both capital cities and areas outside major urban centres and 74 LGAS, with declines in just 13.
“Likely interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia over the next year will ease the burden on borrowers. However, it will take time for stretched household finances to recover from the strain of high interest rates over the past few years,” said Letitia Wong, report author and analyst at Moody’s.
“Also, while inflation is easing, cost-of-living pressures persist. We therefore think that mortgage delinquency rates will continue to rise, though only moderately given that job market conditions remain sound and nominal wages are rising.”
Melbourne is a particular weak spot for delinquency rates, with 14 of the 20 suburbs in with the highest rates in Australia located in the Victorian Capital.
The unemployment rate in Melbourne is above the national average, while income growth is below the national average. The housing market in Melbourne is also softer than other major Australian cities, with median prices declining over the year to September amid an increase in state taxes for investment property owners and a greater supply of housing than other cities,” added Wong.
“The combination of above- average unemployment, below-average income growth and softer housing market conditions than other major cities means Melbourne is likely to remain a weak spot for mortgage delinquencies over the next year.”
While mortgages on properties make up around 23% of all loans in Australian RMBS, outpaced only by Sydney with 25.73%.
