This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
Housing lending fell for the 10th consecutive month over November 2022, having dropped 26% from its January 2022 peak that year.
According to ANZ Research, total housing lending excluding refinancing was down 3.7% over November, after a 2.8% decline in October.
Report author and senior economist at ANZ, Adelaide Timbrell, is forecasting three further rate hikes over 2023, which are expected to continue to place downward pressure on housing lending.
Pressure will be derived both from falling house prices as a result of reduced borrowing capacity leading to lower average loan sizes.
With these house price declines likely leading to a reduced volume of listings and transaction, which will in turn reduce the total flow of lending through fewer purchases.
Both owner occupier lending and investor lending—again both excluding refinancing—were down over November, falling 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. This follows respective declines of 3.1% and 2.3% over October.
Timbrell also noted that even with housing prices falling 8.4% from their May 2022 peak, first home buyer lending has failed to increase over 2022.
The number of monthly loan commitments for first home buyers fell 5.5% over November and sat 20% below rates in May 2022.
With the total value of first home buyer loans dropping by 5.7% over November.
