This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
LOWER North Shore’s Naremburn is expected to lead all of Sydney’s 600-plus suburbs for house price growth in the next six months, as analysts suggests the city’s property market has turned the corner.
The latest Shore Financial State of Sydney report has identified which Sydney suburbs are likely to outperform the market over the next six months, dividing the suburbs into five quintiles based on their current median asking price for houses – heartland, suburban, rising, professional, and affluent Sydney.
The report then picks the top five suburbs in each quintile, by first, excluding suburbs that don’t meet certain benchmarks and trends related to asking prices, days-on-market, inventory levels and sales volumes over the previous three months. Next, the remaining suburbs are ranked based on expected growth in asking prices over the next six months.
Naremburn – part of affluent Sydney, with an average household weekly income of $3,272 – led all comers, with 9% price growth expected from its current median house price of $2.95 million. That would follow growth of 2.6% over the past 12 months.
The suburb’s inventory levels are under one month and homes are spending just eight days on the market before being snapped up.
Next in affluent Sydney for forecast price growth is Fairlight, in the north, with 6% expected on its $3.78 million median. Inventory levels are at 22 days and days on the market is at 22 days.
Affluent Sydney suburbs also leading the pack include Turramurra (5%, from $2.75 million, after losing 11.3% in the past 12 months), Chatswood (5% growth from $2.915 million) and St Ives (3% from $2.995 million, after losing 2% in the past 12 months).
Shore Financial CEO Theo Chambers said the research confirmed that the wider Sydney property market has turned the corner.
“Twelve months ago, prices were falling in most suburbs across Sydney. Six months ago, the turnaround had just begun, but it was too early to know for sure. Now, though, we can say with certainty that Sydney is in growth mode,” he said.
“During the past six months, we’ve seen days on market and inventory levels fall in many parts of Sydney. In other words, market conditions have swung from buyers to sellers, which has been reflected in rising asking prices.
“That said, it’s important not to get carried away, because there’s a difference between a rising market, which we’re in, and a booming market, which we’re definitely not in.
Chambers said that one of the key leading indicators for the leading five suburbs in each quintile is the low levels of inventory in these suburbs.
“Demand pressures are building, which is likely to lead to above-average price growth.”
Growth in heartland Sydney will be led by western hub Blacktown (average household weekly income $1,774), with 2% on its $880,000 median over the next six months forecast after a fall of 3.9% over the past year. Each of the top five in heartland Sydney have lost ground in recent times and growth in the other expected leaders – Kings Park, Villawood, Busby and Green Valley – will likely come in at a modest 1%. Inventory levels are all between one and two months.
Suburban Sydney’s Berala is tipped to see a 6% in the next six months, turning 6.4% drop in the past year to $1.205 million positive. Homes are selling in under 10 days while inventory levels are at 1.9 months. Next in the quintile is Horningsea Park with 5%, after 7.8% annual growth. While days on market is at 24, inventory levels are at one month. Next are Georges Hall, South Granville and Seven Hills.
Belmore leads the rising Sydney pack with 6% growth expected on its $1.5 million, having growth by a similar 5.6% in the past year. Inventory levels are 1.4 months and days on market 22 days. Dundas Valley is also tipped for 6% growth, closely followed by Dundas, and then Kellyville and East Hills.
Professional Sydney’s Beecroft will see a 7% increase on its $2.4 million median, according to the report. Camperdown is tipped to swing from -6% in the past year to 6% growth, and Ashbury is in for 5% growth after an 11.4% fall. Cherrybrook will also see 5% growth on its $2.235 million median, and Castle Hill will swing from a 4.5% annual loss to 4% growth.
