This article is from the Australian Property Journal archive
RISING sea levels and storm surges will cost Victoria $442 billion by 2100, with more than 80,000 residential, commercial and industrial properties expected to be impacted.
According to a new study by the University of Melbourne and commissioned by the Victorian Marine & Coastal Council (VMaCC) and Life Saving Victoria, the impacts on land and property will result in a loss of $337 billion and up to $105 billion for wetlands.
This will include impacts on more than 80,000 properties covering 45,000-hectares, 144,000-hectares of coastal reserves and 288,000-hectares of wetlands.
While the cumulative cost is expected to reach $40 billion by 2040, this figure is set to grow by ten times in the sixty years that follow.
“We know that climate change is going to hurt many Victorian communities if we do not act,” said Anthony Boxshall, chair at VMaCC.
“This rigorous report clearly and comprehensively documents the economic challenges that Victoria’s coastal communities will face from sea level rise and related storm surges. Spending on adaptation over the next two decades could help reduce future risk and save significantly on the estimates of future costs.”
By 2100, 151,000 Victorian residential, commercial, and key infrastructure properties could be at high risk of damage from sea level rise and storm surge, according to modelling by Climate Risk Pty Ltd.
Photo: Andrew Bray
While practically every coastal community in the state will be impacted, the greatest economic losses will result from high density areas including Docklands, Port Melbourne and the Bay suburbs.
By 2040, more than 16,000 properties in Southbank will be at high risk of damage, which will reach over 31,000 properties by 2100. While Docklands will have more than 3,000 properties at risk by 2040 and over 37,000 by 2100.
With almost 40% of the potential economic damages to be sustained by coastal reserves including public recreational areas along the 2,500 km coastline.
“The economic damages from sea level rise / storm surge to coastal areas are more than enough to trigger considerable financial instability for many coastal communities and the State of Victoria itself,” said Tom Kompas, professor at the University of Melbourne and report author.
“Not to mention the potential loss of life, and damages to food, water supply and environmental assets from sea level rise and storm surge, many aspects of which are not accounted for in our calculations.”
A report from 2021 detailed Australian governments would need to spend $30 billion in large-scale coastal protection and adaptation projects over the next 50 years to protect properties and infrastructure.
